The Capacity Numbers

Johnson County's existing jail — built in 1981 at 511 S. Capitol Street, Iowa City — has been assigned at least seven different capacity figures in documents the County and the State have published. The figures range from 46 to 240. There is still significant disagreement and debate among County Supervisors about the desired capacity for any new facility.

The State of Iowa's report lists "designed capacity" as 103 on page 7 (92 permanent beds plus 11 temporary holding cells) and as 117 on page 12 (92 permanent beds plus 25 temporary holding cells) of the same report. The difference is 14 temporary holding cells. No explanation for the discrepancy appears in the report.

Shive-Hattery describes an "operational capacity" of 65. This is the primary number used to frame the current jail as perpetually at or above capacity. Its origin is unclear, but Sheriff Kunkel's statements at meetings imply that the Sheriff unilaterally determines this number, based on factors like staff availability and perceived safety.

The 65 figure first appears publicly on May 29, 2024, when a Shive-Hattery presenter told the Board of Supervisors the jail was "running around 65 beds." It appears in no Iowa Administrative Code provision, no Iowa Department of Inspections record, and no formal Sheriff's Office written policy surfaced in the public record to date.

The "operational capacity" of 65 appears to be the limit maintained, according to average daily population counts. When the number of inmates exceeds 65, they are transferred to facilities outside the county. For fiscal year 2027, the County expects to spend $800,000 on out-of-county housing — presumably based on exceeding operational capacity.

Shive-Hattery describes the 240 figure as: "Administration and miscellaneous functions, inmate processing functions, and support functions have been programmed to accommodate expansion of this facility to 240 beds." The same section adds that "the need for a 240-bed facility is beyond 30 years (2054)". The report also notes that a jail's lifetime is "generally between 40 to 50 years"

Meaning the building's mechanical, food service, intake, laundry, and central control systems are sized not to be used for the first 30 years of the building's existence. If the proposed expansion happens, it would have an expected lifetime of 10–20 years before requiring replacement.

The public framing shifted materially between August 2024 and April 2026. Shive-Hattery describes core support "sized for the full capacity" with housing pods added later to reach 240. By April 22, 2026, Sullivan and Sheriff Kunkel were clarifying on the public record that "expandable to 240 beds" language in materials was misleading: any expansion beyond 140 would require "a separate attached facility."

Whether the Vol. I core-support sizing survives into the current schematic design under Amendment 3 is not established in any published document.

Population — County vs. Sheriff

The University of Iowa Center for Social Science Innovation conducted focus groups for Johnson County. Participants were given a two-page document titled "Jail Quick Facts," which told participants: "Avg daily population — 2024 ADP was 86."

The Sheriff's Office publishes monthly control sheets listing in-house, out-of-county, and electronic-monitor populations. The FY24 control sheet (July 2023 through June 2024) yields:

The "86" figure does not match the Sheriff's FY24 fiscal-year total of 81.15. It is, however, consistent with calendar year 2024 (January–December) total in-custody ADP of 86.14 — computed by combining the tail of the FY24 control sheet (Jan–Jun 2024) with the head of the FY25 control sheet (Jul–Dec 2024).

The focus-group fact sheet does not disclose this. More importantly, it also does not state that the figure is based on an ADP definition that includes those housed outside the county and those subject to electronic monitoring.

The fact sheet does not mention that out-of-county population spiked in September–December 2024 (averaging ~33/day, roughly double the first half of 2024 and significantly above any other time over the past 3.5 years).

Focus-group participants saw only that "2024 ADP was 86" before they were asked about "overcrowding" and whether they supported a new jail.

Total in-custody ADP peaked at 113 in FY15 (when many inmates were housed elsewhere due to jail renovations) and has declined since. By FY24 it stood at 81.15. The Shive-Hattery needs assessment does not foreground this trend.

Cost — A Moving Target

The Shive-Hattery Vol. I Needs Assessment (August 8, 2024) presented two cost figures for two different scopes. A jail-only component at 57,500 GSF, escalated to 2025 dollars, was estimated at $48.88M (range: $46.7M–$51.1M). A combined Sheriff's Office and jail facility covering 111,300 GSF was estimated at $79.75M (range: $76.25M–$83.25M). These 2024 figures used construction rates that have not been updated in any published document.

By August 14, 2025, Shive-Hattery and OPN Architects presented a joint feasibility study to the Board of Supervisors exploring a combined Johnson County / Iowa City Police Department facility. That estimate was $104.5M–$106M, using updated rates of $612/SF for law enforcement and $800/SF for jail, projected to 2027 dollars. The joint approach collapsed in September 2025.

The CSSI focus-group fact sheet used in October 2025 stated the cost as approximately $80M. This figuer was closest to the Vol. I 2024 combined stand-alone estimate. The focus groups were conducted October 6–8, 2025; the $104.5M–$106M joint-facility figure had been presented to the Board six weeks earlier, on August 14, 2025. No public document explains why the $80M figure appeared on the fact sheet after the stand-alone recalculation was underway.

The current public framing is $99M, and has previously been described as approximately $83M for the facility plus $16M for an affordable-housing component. The $16M affordable-housing portion is reportedly financed through a separate essential-purpose bond (Resolution 04-23-26-02, adopted April 23, 2026) that does not require voter approval. The voter-approved general-obligation bond on the November 3, 2026 ballot covers the remaining facility cost.

Pre-Bond Consultant Spending — Contracted Before Voters Weigh In

Johnson County has contracted at least $4.26M in consultant fees related to the jail project before the November 3, 2026 ballot. The contracts span three vendors across a period beginning September 2023.

Shive-Hattery's original contract (September 21, 2023, $75,000) covered facility and space needs assessment. Three amendments followed: Amendment 1 ($63,800, January 21, 2025) for a joint feasibility study with OPN; Amendment 2 ($13,000, November 14, 2025) for housing-unit redesign; and Amendment 3 ($549,000, February 23, 2026) covering schematic design, project delivery, site due diligence, and a "Public Awareness Campaign." The cumulative Shive-Hattery total is $700,800. The executed copy of Amendment 3 produced via open-records request has a blank client signature line.

CSSI / University of Iowa was contracted for $53,406 (signed April 9, 2025, Board approval March 13, 2025) to conduct the survey and focus groups documented in Section 7. The client signature line on the executed CSSI Statement of Work is also blank.

Axiom Consultants was engaged for stabilization construction — emergency structural repairs to the existing jail — at $3,230,395 (Resolution 11-13-25-01, November 13, 2025), plus an estimated design fee of approximately $280,000. A separate increment of approximately $600,000 for FY27 was reportedly authorized through Resolution 04-23-26-02 on April 23, 2026 as part of the essential-purpose bond; no separate public record of that authorization has been located in Granicus.

Shive-Hattery Amendment 3, Part 4 is a "Public Awareness Campaign" with deliverables scheduled for completion by October 14, 2026 — the first day of early voting in Johnson County. This work is covered in detail in Section 10.

Out-of-County Housing: The FY27 Question

When the Johnson County jail is at capacity by any operative measure, inmates are housed in other county jails under contract. The County pays a per-diem rate to the receiving facility. The Sheriff's Office tracks these costs as SC349 — Inmate Housing - Out of County.

Four recent data points frame the FY27 budget question:

• FY24 actual: $303,120 — the lowest full-year cost in the dataset.
• FY25 actual: $440,380 — an increase of 45%, attributed in part to the Henry County contract coming online.
• FY26 partial: $240,319 (six months, July–December 2025).
• FY27 budgeted: $800,000 — 2.6× the FY24 actual and 81% above the FY25 actual.

The County stopped publishing comprehensive Budget Books after FY25. FY26 and FY27 publish only the Tax Calculation, State Form, and Total Expenses documents. The SC349 line-item history is not easily traceable across years from the published budget documents alone.

Bond History — Johnson County Voters Have Done This Before

The November 2026 ballot is not the first time Johnson County voters have been asked to fund a jail replacement. Jail-bond proposals have come before the electorate or the Board of Supervisors at least four times since 2000. Two reached the ballot and failed: both cleared a simple majority but not the 60% supermajority Iowa law requires for county general-obligation bonds.

The 2026 ask at $99 million is 2.1 times the 2012 nominal ask of $46.8 million and exceeds the inflation-adjusted 2009 proposal of $132 million only in nominal terms. Inflation-adjusted, the 2009 proposal that was withdrawn before the ballot would cost $132 million in 2026 dollars — larger than the current ask. The 2012 and 2013 proposals, both smaller, each received majority support before failing at the 60% threshold.

Except as otherwise provided by law, the proposition to issue bonds shall be approved by sixty percent of those voting on the proposition.

The CSSI Survey — What 74% Does and Doesn't Mean

In December 2025, the University of Iowa Center for Social and Behavioral Research (CSSI) delivered its final report on a survey and focus-group project commissioned by the Johnson County Criminal Justice Coordinating Committee. The survey's headline finding: 74% of respondents said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote yes on a new jail bond.

Several features of the survey methodology are worth examining before the headline figure is treated as a reliable forecast of November 2026 ballot results.

The survey's Q10 asked respondents to rate the importance of six "issues identified by the Board of Supervisors." These functioned as a priming block — presented before the vote-intent question. The 60% Iowa supermajority threshold does not appear in Q10, in the vote-intent question, or anywhere in the survey instrument. The CSSI Final Report does not mention Iowa Code §75.1 or the distinction between majority and supermajority approval.

Average daily population is 86, they want 140 beds.

That paraphrase reflects the County's fact sheet verbatim. The figure is reconstructable: calendar year 2024 total in-custody ADP from the Sheriff's own control sheets is 86.14 — but it is a calendar-year figure, not the fiscal-year figure used elsewhere in the bond narrative (FY24 total in-custody: 81.15), and it is inflated by a Linn County contract ramp-up that drove September–December 2024 totals to 104–110 per day. The fact sheet names none of these choices.

The focus-group scope contracted for 36 participants across six groups — two groups each of community members, jail staff, and people with incarceration experience. Three groups were delivered with 17 total participants. The stratification was changed from community/staff/incarcerated to vote-intent-stratified (yes/maybe/no). No Board addendum or public record of this scope change has been located in Granicus or the County's online meeting documentation.

Mailing #2 in the survey outreach plan was cancelled mid-project; $7,700 was reallocated to focus groups. No public addendum to the CSSI contract authorizing this reallocation appears in the public record.

The State Jail Inspector — Two Consecutive Zero-Non-Compliance Records

Iowa Administrative Code Chapter 50.6 requires the Iowa Department of Inspections, Appeals and Licensing (DIAL) to inspect county jails annually. Inspector Delbert G. Longley conducted the Johnson County Jail inspection on January 7, 2025 and January 6, 2026.

Both inspections returned zero non-compliance items. The State's compliance standard for capacity — Iowa Administrative Code §50.6(5), "Designed capacity not exceeded" — was marked compliant in both years. The Inspector used 92 as the operative designed capacity figure.

Physical-condition issues were noted in both inspections: building deterioration (§50.4(2)), mattress wear (§50.9(11)), and housekeeping/vent dust (§50.14). The 2026 report noted that deterioration "continues to exist and appears to be worsening," and that the Axiom stabilization scope addresses the structural deterioration. None of these issues rose to a non-compliance finding.

The Johnson County Jail is the cleanest that I have observed. Staff is doing an exceptional job considering the physical restrictions of the jail.

The CSSI survey's Q10 — a priming block presented to respondents before the vote-intent question — listed six issues identified by the Board of Supervisors. Several map directly to the Inspector's record: "overcrowding" (§50.6(5) marked compliant both years using 92 as the operative figure); "failing HVAC / poor air quality and mold" (housekeeping and vent dust noted, no non-compliance); "structural concerns" (deterioration noted, compliant — Axiom scope addresses it); "significant liability" (zero non-compliance items either year). The framing in the Q10 priming block is not reflected in the State's own zero-non-compliance findings.

Sheriff's Office Budget Growth

From $13.44M (FY24 actual) to $18.67M (FY27 proposed) — a 39% increase in three years, independent of any bond-funded construction. The FY27 all-funds total is $20.73M, including a $600K FD30 increment for the Axiom stabilization work. Budget growth of this scale is worth noting as context for any bond-funded expansion.

The Public Awareness Campaign

Public Awareness Campaign support activities leading to a funding vote on November 3, 2026

The County's $549,000 Shive-Hattery Amendment 3 contract includes a Part 4 covering "Public Awareness Campaign support activities." Deliverables — Bond Calendar, Bond Presentation, Bond Marketing Materials, Community Presentations, "why this is an Essential Project" website collateral — are scheduled to be complete by October 14, 2026. Iowa early voting begins October 14, 2026. Iowa Code §68A.405A prohibits use of public funds for political advertising.

The PPI Critique

In December 2024, Prison Policy Initiative researchers Emmett Sanders and Sarah Staudt submitted a 19-page memo to Prairielands Freedom Fund analyzing the Shive-Hattery Vol I Needs Assessment. It was presented at the May 8, 2025 CJCC meeting by Elizabeth Rook Panicucci — the same meeting where the CSSI survey instrument was finalized. None of its findings appear in the CSSI survey or Final Report.